A strong El Nino event is now highly likely to develop in the tropical Pacific between June and September 2026, and to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026 to 2027. There is a real, though not certain, possibility that this event will reach “super” El Nino intensity, a category previously seen only in 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2015 to 2016.

For our 74 member states, the next 18 months therefore carry the risk of compounding food, water, health, and fiscal shocks layered on top of an already record-warm climate baseline.

This memo summarizes what we know, what remains uncertain, and what CVF-V20 governments should be doing now.