The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to give a greater-than-90-percent chance of a very strong El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, and has raised the chance of a historic event exceeding every El Niño since 1950 to 75 percent, up from 69 percent in August. Ocean warming continues toward that threshold, and August 2026 is already tied as the warmest month ever recorded, at 1.65°C above pre-industrial.

Impacts are no longer forecasts. India has recorded its warmest August since 1901, four Central American governments have declared drought emergencies, and the Southern Africa outlook favors below-normal rainfall. This bulletin also adds the Himalaya and Hindu Kush Himalaya to the regional hazard profile.