El Niño is strengthening faster than the June outlook anticipated. In its 9 July 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA maintained the El Niño Advisory and raised the odds of a “very strong” event to 81 percent, up from 63 percent just one month ago, with the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly now expected to exceed +2.0°C at an October–December peak, a month earlier than previously projected.

For CVF-V20 governments, the preparation window before peak conditions is now measured in weeks, not seasons. This updated science bulletin summarizes what has changed since June and sets out what member states should be doing now, ahead of the October–December peak.