El Niño has officially formed. On 11 June 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) upgraded its outlook from an El Niño Watch to an El Niño Advisory and now puts the odds of a “very strong” event at 63 percent, up sharply from the roughly 1-in-4 chance flagged in our last bulletin.

For CVF-V20 governments, the question is no longer whether to prepare for compounding food, water, health, and fiscal shocks, but how fast.

This updated science bulletin outlines key developments since NOAA’s latest forecast and sets out recommended actions for CVF-V20 member states over the next 90 days.