Extreme Threats for Most Vulnerable as Nations Fail on Paris Promises

• ●  Just 40% of countries respond to key UN climate change framework convention (UNFCCC) call for new national climate ambition in 2020
• ●  Some 70 nations strengthen national “NDC” climate targets under the Paris Agreement by the midnight 31 December “survival deadline”

DHAKA, Bangladesh – 8 January 2021: The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) today released its assessment of the global response to the first once-in-five-year deadline for all countries to strengthen their contributions under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The CVF Climate Survival Leadership Barometer tracked delivery of new 2020 climate targets by all countries under the Paris Agreement (called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), with final results highlighting the most significant global ambition increase to tackle the climate emergency since 2015 despite the failure by most countries to respond or to adequately do so.

Bangladesh holds the CVF presidency and their Hon’able Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, HE Md. Shahab Uddin, said:

“Boldest efforts are needed from all nations to keep within reach the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement on which our survival truly depends. After the ‘midnight hour’, despite some progress, we remain under extreme threat as more countries than not failed to deliver in-time on the promises made at Paris five years ago. We therefore call on every nation that fell short to urgently strengthen their national climate action targets and to do so well ahead of November 2021 UNFCCC COP26 in Glasgow.

“Future generations rely on us all to keep our word and will pass judgement on those not taking action. The gap between action and words has never been greater, with the world failing the Barometer test just as the pressure cooker of the planet is reaching boiling point. Many countries rose to the challenge, and together their sense of leadership will be remembered as much as those who failed us will not be forgotten, especially by young people of today. Of the 160 nations who individually committed, less than half saw through the machinery of delivery to a result worthy of their commitments. We cannot speak of a climate crisis when there is so little time left and allow one, or potentially as much as five more years of insufficient action to prevail.”

Minister Uddin highlighted the 60 nations responding to what the CVF had termed the “Midnight Survival Deadline for the Climate” after the launch of this initiative in October 2020, including countries from every region, income group and geographical profile. He underscored the need to rebuild confidence in the Paris Agreement’s ability to deliver, and how crucial enhanced international support through finance, technology and capacity building for developing countries will be for ensuring a robust response from all nations.

The CVF’s Thematic Ambassador for Ambition, HE President Mohamed Nasheed, Speaker of the People’s Majlis of the Maldives, commented:

“Despite the failure of most countries to submit NDCs, we are inspired by the striking new ambition shown by many nations from across the world. We have seen commitments to carbon neutrality within the decade, to 100% renewable energy, and to strengthen resilience against climate disasters. We need all nations to urgently follow this climate leadership in 2021.”

President Nasheed further highlighted that the more than 60 nations that raised ambition proved that any government was capable of assuming stronger commitments to tackle the climate crisis, even amid a pandemic. He underscored that in order to be successful the UK-hosted 2021 COP26 UN summit would need to resolve any remaining threats to keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement within reach. The next 2025 Paris Agreement NDC deadline for all nations to enhance ambition would be “five years too late for the planet”, added President Nasheed.

The Chair of the CVF’s Expert Advisory Group, Prof. Dr. Saleemul Huq, commented:

“When COP26 was pushed to 2021 everyone agreed the COVID-19 pandemic should not delay climate action. The morning after midnight, though, we woke to less than half of the Paris Agreement’s parties delivering on its most core provisions to raise the ambition of their contributions to meet the Agreement’s central goals. By not strengthening so many now 5-year-old commitments, the NDCs, the Paris regime has failed its first and most important test. Right now, this regime has failed and the international community will have to answer as to whether or not it can be rebuilt.

“2020’s huge disruptions clearly played some role in inhibiting widespread compliance with the Paris Agreement, even if global emissions fell by more than 7%. That level of emission cuts is precisely what is needed every single year till 2030 to keep the Paris 1.5°C goal within reach. The world can and has to do better. One way or another, climate justice must be done for those whose futures remain in the balance. This 2021 recovery year is now the pivotal moment to inject real climate ambition that communities will benefit from into national efforts worldwide.”

The CEO of the Global Center on Adaptation, the CVF’s Managing Partner, Prof. Dr. Patrick Verkooijen, also commented:

“The CVF Barometer’s assessment that over 60 nations strengthened their resilience actions and targets – more so than raised mitigation ambition – shows that governments are more serious about adaptation than ever before. The climate emergency has clearly arrived. Despite the concerning lack of delivery by many, the efforts of governments under the midnight deadline do represent the most significant strengthening of adaptation action to-date. We look forward to building on the success of this year of action and to further accelerate a truly global transformation for climate resilience throughout 2021.”

The CVF secretariat additionally released the following 2020 assessment results under the Climate Survival Leadership Barometer:

• ● Number of countries that committed to submit stronger NDC targets in 2020: 160
• ● Number of countries submitting 2020 NDC updates to the UN: 73
• ● Number of countries submitting stronger new 2020 NDC commitments: 69
• ● Number of countries strengthening NDC targets for resilience (adaptation): 66
• ● Number of countries strengthening NDC targets for emissions (mitigation): 57
• ● Proportion of global emissions covered of updating countries1:
  • • –  Share of global CO2 emissions of countries that submitted updated 2020 NDCs: 23%
    • –  Share of global CO2 emissions of countries enhancing 2020 NDC mitigation ambition:13%
• ● Overall population of all countries submitting updated NDCs: 1.7 billion people
• ● Population covered by resilience strengthened NDCs: 1.67 billion people
• ● Proportion of world GDP of updating countries 2 : 38.6 % GDP 3
• ● Number of countries promising but not submitting stronger NDC targets in 2020 to the UN: 87
• ● Number of Paris Agreement parties not responding to the UNFCCC-agreed request for updatedNDCs in 2020: 114 4
• 1. Based on data from: Global Carbon Atlas, 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions
• 2. Based on data from: IMF, 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
• 3. Based on GDP PPP
• 4. Excludes nations not party to the Paris Agreement or not having INDCs though having NDCs

• Countries submitting NDC updates to the UNFCCC:

Andorra, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, DPR Korea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Mongolia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, The Republic of the Marshall Islands, Tonga, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Viet Nam, Zambia.

• Countries delivering climate survival leadership (stronger NDC commitments):

Andorra, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica, Kenya, Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Mongolia, Nepal, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Norway, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, The Republic of the Marshall Islands, Tonga, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Viet Nam, Zambia.

• Countries submitting NDC Updates with no new ambition:

Brazil, DPR Korea, Japan, New Zealand.

• Countries strengthening resilience ambition (adaptation) in 2020 NDCs:

Andorra, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica, Kenya, Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Mongolia, Nepal, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, The Republic of the Marshall Islands, Tonga, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Viet Nam.

• Countries strengthening emissions ambition (mitigation) in 2020 NDCs:

Argentina, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Maldives, Malta, Monaco, Mongolia, Nepal, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Norway, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Rwanda, Senegal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Suriname, Sweden, Tonga, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Viet Nam, Zambia.